Finding Jumps in Otherwise Smooth Curves: Identifying Critical Events in Political Processes.

@article{Ratkovic2010FindingJI,
  title={Finding Jumps in Otherwise Smooth Curves: Identifying Critical Events in Political Processes.},
  author={Marc T. Ratkovic and Kevin H. Eng},
  journal={Political analysis : an annual publication of the Methodology Section of the American Political Science Association},
  year={2010},
  volume={18 1},
  pages={
          57-77
        }
}
Many social processes are stable and smooth in general, with discrete jumps. We develop a sequential segmentation spline method that can identify both the location and the number of discontinuities in a series of observations with a time component, while fitting a smooth spline between jumps, using a modified Bayesian Information Criterion statistic as a stopping rule. We explore the method in a large-n, unbalanced panel setting with George W. Bush's approval data, a small-n time series with… CONTINUE READING

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