Filling in the ‘unknowns’: Hypothesis-based intelligence and the Rumsfeld commission

  title={Filling in the ‘unknowns’: Hypothesis-based intelligence and the Rumsfeld commission},
  author={Maria Ryan},
  journal={Intelligence and National Security},
  pages={286 - 315}
  • Maria Ryan
  • Published 2006
  • Political Science
  • In 2003 the Pentagon's Office of Special Plans employed a hypothesis-based methodology to deliver the now discredited intelligence that justified the Iraq war. The 1976 ‘Team B’, which was also heavily influenced by neoconservatives and used the same methodology, has been recognized as a precedent. There is, however, another precedent, the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, which challenged CIA predictions on the ballistic missile threat to the US. Lobbied for by many of the same conservatives and… CONTINUE READING

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