• Corpus ID: 21899000

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

@article{Shaw2007FiftyYO,
  title={Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?},
  author={Chris Shaw},
  journal={Population trends},
  year={2007},
  volume={128},
  pages={
          8-23
        }
}
  • C. Shaw
  • Published 2007
  • Geography, Medicine
  • Population trends
This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration… 
Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments
Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries
Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections
Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current
Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections
Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current
The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections
Statistics Norway projects the population by age, sex and immigrant background at the national level. This paper examines the accuracy of the Norwegian population projections produced between 1996
Population estimates and projections for Australia’s very elderly population at state and national level
As in many developed countries, the very elderly population (ages 85+) is the fastest growing age group in Australia, with far-reaching economic and social consequences. To effectively plan and
UK national population projections in perspective: how successful compared to those in other European countries?
Compared to population forecasts of other European countries, those made in the United Kingdom during the past 30 years had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility and smaller errors for
The Shelf Life of Official Sub-National Population Forecasts in England
We measure the empirical distribution of the accuracy of projected population in sub-national areas of England, developing the concept of ‘shelf life’: the furthest horizon for which the subsequent
Alternative state and national projections of Australia’s very elderly population
Growing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have significant implications for income support, aged care and health care and accurate projections are essential for proper planning and budgeting.
A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand
In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the
THE FORECAST ACCURACY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS: A CASE STUDY OF QUEENSLAND
Users of population projections tend to assume that they provide accurate predictions of future demographic trends. However, there is limited evidence to either support or refute this assumption
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 12 REFERENCES
Accuracy and uncertainty of the national population projections for the United Kingdom.
This article considers how accurate recent national population projections for the United Kingdom made since 1971 have turned out to be. The overall size of the population has generally been forecast
Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United
2004-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries.
  • C. Shaw
  • Geography, Medicine
    Population trends
  • 2006
The 2004-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom (UK) rising from 59.8
Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries.
  • C. Shaw
  • Medicine
    Population trends
  • 2002
TLDR
The full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections are described and some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries are summaries.
Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area
We analyse empirical errors observed in historical population forecasts produced by statistical agencies in 14 European countries since 1950. The focus is on forecasts for three demographic
The effect of changes in timing of childbearing on measuring fertility in England and Wales.
TLDR
Various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data are presented.
2. The British Population: Patterns, Trends, and Processes
Lang uag e: English Year: 1992 Reg ion / Country: Europe Western | Europe | United Kingdom
National population projections: review of methodology for projecting mortality, Annex D
  • Office for National Statistics
  • 2001
Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialised countries
  • Journal of Official Statistics
  • 1997
Accuracy , monitoring and evaluation of national population projections
  • From National Population Forecasting in Industrialised Countries
  • 1992
...
1
2
...