Fat tailed distributions for deaths in conflicts and disasters

  title={Fat tailed distributions for deaths in conflicts and disasters},
  author={Arnab Chatterjee and Bikas K. Chakrabarti},
  journal={arXiv: Physics and Society},
We study the statistics of human deaths from wars, conflicts, similar man-made conflicts as well as natural disasters. The probability distribution of number of people killed in natural disasters as well as man made situations show power law decay for the largest sizes, with similar exponent values. Comparisons with natural disasters, when event sizes are measured in terms of physical quantities (e.g., energy released in earthquake, volume of rainfall, land area affected in forest fires, etc… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Inequality in death from social conflicts: A Gini & Kolkata indices-based study

Change point analysis of historical battle deaths

A full change point analysis of well‐documented, publicly available battle deaths data sets is conducted, using new techniques that enable the robust detection of changes in the statistical properties of such heavy‐tailed data.

(2020) Change point analysis of historical battle

2020] Summary. It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a ‘long peace’: an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full change point analysis of well-documented,

Modeling Interstate War Combat Deaths

A prolonged campaign of peaceful interstate competition is an ideal strategic application of artificial intelligence. Monte Carlo simulation, based on validated war analytics, must be at the heart of

A complex network analysis of ethnic conflicts and human rights violations

It is demonstrated how targeted removal of actors may help stop spreading unruly events, and the cause-effect relation between types of events is studied, and quantitative analysis confirm that ethnic conflicts lead to human rights violations, while it does not support the converse.

Complex Network Analysis of Mass Violation, Specifically Mass Killing

News reports in media contain news about society’s social and political conditions. With the help of publicly available digital datasets of events, it is possible to study a complex network of mass

Spatio-Temporal Networks of Social Conflicts: Analysis and Modeling

This work uses publicly available large digital databases of media records to construct networks of actors involved in conflicts by aggregating the events over time and proposes a model for interacting actors that can reproduce the most important features of these datasets.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Physics of Societies

How can we solve problems in the society that cause socio economic crises such as the one of 2008? Here we introduce the subject of this special issue, ‘physics of societies’, dealing with a general

Generalized Pareto Model: Properties and Applications in Neutrosophic Data Modeling

The proposed model is a neutrosophic variant of the classical Pareto distribution, potentially useful for analyzing vague, unclear, indeterminate, or imprecise data.

Econophysics Through Computation

We introduce here very briefly, through some selective choices of problems and through the sample computer simulation programs (following the request of the editor for this invited review in the



"Natural Disasters, Casualties and Power Laws: A Comparative Analysis with Armed Conflict"

Power-law relationships, relating events with magnitudes to their frequency, are common in natural disasters and violent conflict. Compared to many statistical distributions, power laws drop off more

Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2009The numbers and trends

In 2011, 332 natural disasters1 were registered, less than the average annual disaster frequency observed from 2001 to 2010 (384). However, the human and economic impacts of the disasters in 2011

On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events

In the spirit of Lewis Richardson’s original study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show that these events are

Statistics of deadly quarrels

Look upon the phenomenon of war with dis passion and detachment, as if observing the follies of another species on a distant planet: From such an elevated view, war seems a puny enough pastime.

Forest fires: An example of self-organized critical behavior

A simple forest fire model, which is an example of self-organized criticality, exhibits power-law frequency-area statistics over many orders of magnitude, which can be used to quantify the risk of large fires.

On the Size Distribution of Macroeconomic Disasters

In the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The

Fractality and Self-Organized Criticality of Wars

This paper considers the frequency-size statistics of wars. Using several alternative measures of the intensity of a war in terms of battle deaths, we find a fractal (power-law) dependence of number

Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude

Abstract A record of wars during the interval A.D. 1820 to 1945 has been collected from the whole world, and has been classified according to the number of war-dead. The smaller incidents have been

A complexity view of rainfall.

It is shown that rain events are analogous to a variety of nonequilibrium relaxation processes in Nature such as earthquakes and avalanches and that power laws describe the number of rain events versus size and number of droughts versus duration.

Unified scaling law for earthquakes.

We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years. The short time clustering,