168 Citations
Fast and Frugal Time Series Forecasting
- EconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
- 2021
This paper argues that parsimoniously identifying suitable subsets of models will not decrease the forecasting accuracy nor will it reduce the ability to estimate the forecast uncertainty, and proposes a framework that balances forecasting performance versus computational cost.
Wielding Occam's razor: Fast and frugal retail forecasting
- Computer Science
- 2021
The argument is that parsi-moniously identifying suitable subsets of models will not decrease forecasting accuracy nor will it reduce the ability to estimate forecast uncertainty, and a framework that balances forecasting performance versus computational cost is proposed, resulting in the consideration of only a reduced set of models.
System economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach
- Economics
- 2009
Rational Foundations of Fast and Frugal Heuristics: The Ecological Rationality of Strategy Selection via Improper Linear Models
- BiologyMinds and Machines
- 2015
This work demonstrates how to test this model using the Recognition Heuristic and Take the Best heuristic, shows how the model reconciles with the ecological rationality program, and discusses how the prescriptive, computational approach could be approximated by simpler mental rules that might be more descriptive.
Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
- Psychology
- 2014
Analysis of how individual differences affect performance in time-series forecasting provides some evidence that by manipulating decision speed the authors can influence forecasting performance such that it deteriorates if forecasters are forced to make overly fast or overly slow decisions.
Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions
- PsychologyCogn. Sci.
- 2018
An agent‐based model is developed and presented—the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)—to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data), which captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses in both forecasting and judgment tasks.
References
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The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition
- Economics
- 1982
The results of a forecasting competition are presented to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition.
Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic.
- Psychology, BusinessPsychological review
- 2002
The recognition heuristic, arguably the most frugal of all heuristics, makes inferences from patterns of missing knowledge that leads to the counterintuitive less-is-more effect in which less knowledge is better than more for making accurate inferences.
Accuracy of Forecasting: An Empirical Investigation
- Business
- 1979
In this study, the authors used 111 time series to examine the accuracy of various forecasting methods, particularly time-series methods. The study shows, at least for time series, whysome methods…
Simple heuristics and rules of thumb: Where psychologists and behavioural biologists might meet
- Biology, PsychologyBehavioural Processes
- 2005
Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison
- Computer Science
- 2002
An overview of recent results on lexicographic, linear, and Bayesian models for paired comparison from a cognitive psychology perspective, and identifies the optimal model in each class, where optimality is defined with respect to performance when fitting known data.
“Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When they Work “Well” with Binary Cues
- Psychology
- 2006
The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of both rules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifies the relative predictive accuracies of the…
The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making.
- Psychology
- 1979
Proper linear models are those in which predictor variables are given weights in such a way that the resulting linear composite optimally predicts some criterion of interest; examples of proper…
Geographic Profiling: The Fast, Frugal, and Accurate Way
- Psychology
- 2004
The current article addresses the ongoing debate about whether individuals can perform as well as actuarial techniques when confronted with real world, consequential decisions. A single experiment…