FORECAST BIAS IN TWO DIMENSIONS

@inproceedings{Croushore2012FORECASTBI,
  title={FORECAST BIAS IN TWO DIMENSIONS},
  author={Dean D. Croushore},
  year={2012}
}
Economists have tried to uncover stylized facts about people’s expectations, testing whether such expectations are rational. Tests in the early 1980s suggested that expectations were biased, and some economists took irrational expectations as a stylized fact. But, over time, the results of tests that led to such a conclusion were reversed. In this paper, we examine how tests for bias in expectations, measured using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, have changed over time. In addition, key… CONTINUE READING

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