Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning : The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment

@inproceedings{Kahneman1983ExtensionalVI,
  title={Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning : The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment},
  author={Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky and Martin L. Hoffman},
  year={1983}
}
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: The probability of a conjunction, P(A&B), cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A) and P(B), because the extension (or the possibility set) of the conjunction is included in the extension of its constituents. Judgments under uncertainty, however, are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule. A conjunction can be more representative than one of… CONTINUE READING