Kansei Versus Extensional Reasoning: The Scientific Illusion of The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
Introduction Subsequent to the investigations of Tversky and Kahneman (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) it is well known that judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are…
On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation.
- PhilosophyJournal of experimental psychology. General
This account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed, which is a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists.
Heuristics and Biases: Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning
- Computer Science
The student of judgment uses the probability calculus as a standard of comparison much as a student of perception might compare the perceived size of objects to their physical sizes to determine the “correct” probability of events.
Polymorphism of Human Judgment under Uncertainty
Results show that the possibilistic model tends to fit the subjects' judgments in the low plausibility cases, and the probabilistic model in the high plausibility case, and exhibit the polymorphism of human judgment under uncertainty.
Commentary: Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
- PsychologyFront. Psychol.
This commentary provides possible alternative accounts of the conjunction fallacy in the Linda problem in light of bounded rationality theory and “nudging” (or “libertarian paternalism,” Gigerenzer, 2015) and generates novel hypotheses in the domain of experimental psychology.
Does providing a subtle reasoning hint remedy the conjunction fallacy
Humans are in general poor at making judgments that adhere to the logical principles of probability theory. One demonstration of this is termed the “conjunction fallacy”: judging a conjunction (A&B)…
Representativeness and conjoint probability.
- PsychologyJournal of personality and social psychology
In 2 experiments, representativeness was pitted against probability combination to determine the contributions of each to the fallacy, and Representativeness seemed to be involved only insofar as it influenced the probabilities of a conjunction's component events.
How probability theory explains the conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge a conjunctive statement B-and-A to be more probable than a constituent B, in contrast to the law of probability that P(B ∧ A) cannot exceed P(B) or…
The Conjunction fallacy: Causality vs. event probability
Under certain conditions people give a conjunction of events a higher probability than one of its constituents. This finding has been called the ‘conjunction fallacy’ (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983).…
Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy
The conjunction fallacy has been a key topic in debates on the rationality of human reasoning and its limitations. Despite extensive inquiry, however, the attempt to provide a satisfactory account of…
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Causal Schemata in Judgments under Uncertainty
- Computer Science
This paper develops the thesis that the impact of evidence on intuitive judgements of probabilities depends critically on whether it is perceived as causal, diagnostic or incidental, and shows that people assign greater impact to causal data than to diagnostic data of equal informativeness.
On the psychology of prediction
In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. Two classes of…
Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference.
Abstract : Ambiguity results from having limited knowledge of the process that generates outcomes. It is argued that many real-world processes are perceived to be ambiguous; moreover, as Ellsberg…
The Subjective Probability of Conjunctions
Previous experiments have demonstrated but not explained people's tendency to exaggerate the probability of conjunctive events. The present study explores this tendency in several different contexts…
Hypothesis Evaluation from a Bayesian Perspective.
Bayesian inference provides a general framework for evaluating hypotheses. It is a normative method in the sense of prescribing how hypotheses should be evaluated. However, it may also be used…
Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937/1964), a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition. It expresses a purely internal state; there is no “right,” “correct,” or “objective”…