Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out

@article{Zinkina2014ExplosivePG,
  title={Explosive Population Growth in Tropical Africa: Crucial Omission in Development Forecasts—Emerging Risks and Way Out},
  author={Julia Zinkina and Andrey V. Korotayev},
  journal={World Futures},
  year={2014},
  volume={70},
  pages={120 - 139}
}
Our article draws attention to a crucial factor frequently omitted from the global development agenda, namely the explosive population growth inevitably expected in Tropical Africa in the nearest decades as a result of the region's laggardness in fertility transition. Population doubling (or even tripling) in the next decades can seriously undermine the development prospects of Tropical African countries and lead to sociopolitical destabilization or even large-scale violent conflicts with… 
View on Taylor & Francis
cliodynamics.ru
51 Citations
Highly Influential Citations
3
Background Citations
23

51 Citations

Demographic growth in dangerous places: Concentrating conflict risks 1
If one merely counts countries becoming democratic, progress in the international system looks impressive. However, more relevant for future stability is whether countries—whether democratic or…
Explaining Current Fertility Dynamics in Tropical Africa From an Anthropological Perspective
Tropical Africa is known to be lagging far behind the rest of the world in its fertility transition. Many attempts have been made to specify the factors responsible for its resistance to fertility…
East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?
The article demonstrates that: (i) the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian trap yet, (ii) these countries are not likely to follow the “North…
Macro-historical causes of modern mass migration
The great migration crisis of 2015 resulted in historically unprecedented massive migration fl ows towards Europe that tend to repeat themselves over the years. This paper examines the gradual…
USING ADVOCACY TO ENHANCE GREEN MUNICIPALITIES IN UGANDA: A STUDY OF HOIMA MUNICIPALITY
In 2017, after launching, by the first Deputy Prime Minister of Uganda Moses Ali along with the UNDP country Director Almaz Gebru, a new green growth development strategy, key green growth issues and…
The Great Convergence and Globalization: How Former Colonies Became the World Economic Locomotives
Quite paradoxically, retrospectively one can trace the beginning of the process of the Great Convergence already in the nineteenth century when the European and Western domination seemed to have…
Политическая Демография Мировой Экономики: Страны Тропической Африки (Political Demography of the World Economy: Tropical Africa)
The paper analyzes the international demographic processes and their social and economic consequences as well as the current demographic situation in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, and the…
Globalization , Revolution , and Democracy
This article studies the issue of democratization of countries within globalization context, it points to the unreasonably high economic and social costs of a rapid transition to democracy as a…
Population, ecology, and the Malthusian imagination: an introduction
Human population growth is a strange beast. To express concern over it may be one of the few things which, even in today’s polarized political climate, will evoke roughly equal amounts of scorn and…
General Conclusion to the Monograph. Mena Region and Global Transformations. Arab Spring and the Beginning of the World System Reconfiguration
The events of the Arab Spring can be analyzed in two dimensions: first, with respect to internal and global causes and second, in terms of their influence on the future scenarios of the World System…
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 49 REFERENCES
Population and Security: How Demographic Change Can Lead to Violent Conflict
"While the marked decrease in population growth in many countries and regions is good news for those concerned about global population, it offers no clear relief for concerns about the security…
A response to critics of family planning programs.
TLDR
Another less visible but equally important discussion of the impact of demo graphic trends and policy options is under way among the leaders of the least- developed countries, with a large majority of these leaders agreeing that population growth and birthrates are too high.
Reproduction and Social Organization in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Unlike most Asian and Latin American countries, sub-Saharan Africa has seen both an increase in population growth rates and a weakening of traditional patterns of child-spacing since the 1960s. It is…
Economic and demographic interrelationships in sub-Saharan Africa.
In most of Africa the process of structural change accompanying increasing industrialization has barely begun and features of African land tenure and family organization that encourage high fertility…
Leave none to claim the land
More than 200 years after its first publication, the Malthusian thesis is still much debated, albeit in a modified form. Rather than predicting a global catastrophe, most neo-Malthusians stress the…
World dynamics
TLDR
World Dynamics shows the opportunity for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the forces of his environment while there still remains time and maneuvering room for growth and expansion to give way to equilibrium.
Land relations under unbearable stress: Rwanda caught in the Malthusian trap.
On the Social Control of Human Reproduction
Most societies control fertility and population growth to some degree through basic institutional arrangements that support the functioning of the social system as a whole. This article tries to…
The demographic impact of the family planning--health services project in Matlab, Bangladesh.
TLDR
The study shows that intensive family planning efforts can affect fertility in the absence of socioeconomic changes.
Socio-economic determinants of fertility
This study examined the effect of economic caste and income variations on fertility in India. It was hypothesized that the fertility differential among Indias caste groupings can be explained on the…
...
...