Exploiting the Essential Assumptions of Analogy-Based Effort Estimation


Background: There are too many design options for software effort estimators. How can we best explore them all? Aim: We seek aspects on general principles of effort estimation that can guide the design of effort estimators. Method: We identified the essential assumption of analogy-based effort estimation, i.e., the immediate neighbors of a project offer stable conclusions about that project. We test that assumption by generating a binary tree of clusters of effort data and comparing the variance of supertrees versus smaller subtrees. Results: For 10 data sets (from Coc81, Nasa93, Desharnais, Albrecht, ISBSG, and data from Turkish companies), we found: 1) The estimation variance of cluster subtrees is usually larger than that of cluster supertrees; 2) if analogy is restricted to the cluster trees with lower variance, then effort estimates have a significantly lower error (measured using MRE, AR, and Pred(25) with a Wilcoxon test, 95 percent confidence, compared to nearest neighbor methods that use neighborhoods of a fixed size). Conclusion: Estimation by analogy can be significantly improved by a dynamic selection of nearest neighbors, using only the project data from regions with small variance.

DOI: 10.1109/TSE.2011.27

Extracted Key Phrases

5 Figures and Tables

Citations per Year

106 Citations

Semantic Scholar estimates that this publication has 106 citations based on the available data.

See our FAQ for additional information.

Cite this paper

@article{Kocaguneli2012ExploitingTE, title={Exploiting the Essential Assumptions of Analogy-Based Effort Estimation}, author={Ekrem Kocaguneli and Tim Menzies and Ayse Basar Bener and Jacky W. Keung}, journal={IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering}, year={2012}, volume={38}, pages={425-438} }