Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents ’ forecasts

  title={Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents ’ forecasts},
  author={Michael P. Clements},
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of in‡ation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this …nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts… CONTINUE READING


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