Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents ’ forecasts

@inproceedings{Clements2008ExplanationsOT,
  title={Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents ’ forecasts},
  author={Michael P. Clements},
  year={2008}
}
A comparison of the point forecasts and the central tendencies of probability distributions of in‡ation and output growth of the SPF indicates that the point forecasts are sometimes optimistic relative to the probability distributions. We consider and evaluate a number of possible explanations for this …nding, including the degree of uncertainty concerning the future, computational costs, delayed updating, and asymmetric loss. We also consider the relative accuracy of the two sets of forecasts… CONTINUE READING

References

Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 37 references

Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters

  • J. Engelberg, C. F. Manski, J. Williams
  • Journal of Business and Economic Statistics…
  • 2007
Highly Influential
16 Excerpts

Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss

  • P. F. Christo¤ersen, F. X. Diebold
  • Econometric Theory,
  • 1997
Highly Influential
7 Excerpts

Rationality and the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting

  • M. P. Clements
  • Economic Journal, 105, 410–420.
  • 1995
Highly Influential
5 Excerpts

Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters

  • D. Croushore
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business…
  • 1993
Highly Influential
4 Excerpts

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…