Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.

@article{Koehler1991ExplanationIA,
  title={Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.},
  author={Derek J. Koehler},
  journal={Psychological bulletin},
  year={1991},
  volume={110 3},
  pages={
          499-519
        }
}
  • D. Koehler
  • Published 1 November 1991
  • Psychology
  • Psychological bulletin
This article concerns a class of experimental manipulations that require people to generate explanations or imagine scenarios. A review of studies using such manipulations indicates that people who explain or imagine a possibility then express greater confidence in the truth of that possibility. It is argued that this effect results from the approach people take in the explanation or imagination task: They temporarily assume that the hypothesis is true and assess how plausibly it can account… 
Justification effects on the judgment of analogy
TLDR
The effects of justification on judgment of the soundness of analogies were examined and provided reasons led to poorer discrimination between superficially similar aspects of the stimuli and analogous aspects.
Explanation and evidence in informal argument
Iffy beliefs: Conditional thinking and belief change
TLDR
This hypothesis is consistent with the claim that evaluating a conditional will heighten belief in its antecedent more than in its consequent, and was stronger following the evaluation of conditionals with dissimilar animal categories.
Confidence and accuracy in deductive reasoning
TLDR
Confidence judgments appeared to reflect external cues, so that confidence was greater when the participants were allowed additional time to think about the problem, as well as when the conclusion was either believable or unbelievable, rather than neutral.
Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment
Ss asked to generate their own hypotheses expressed less confidence that they were true than did other Ss who were presented with the same hypotheses for evaluation. This finding holds across domains
The role of explanatory considerations in updating
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
TLDR
In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, the implications of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap are examined.
The structure and function of explanations
  • T. Lombrozo
  • Psychology, Philosophy
    Trends in Cognitive Sciences
  • 2006
Belief Utility as an Explanatory Virtue
TLDR
The results of three experiments challenge classic theories of the relationship between belief and action, suggesting that the system for belief fixation is sensitive to the utility of potential beliefs for taking subsequent action.
Selective hypothesis testing
A diverse set of biases that have been found to characterize judgment may be similarly mediated by a process of selective hypothesis testing. Our paper begins with a definition of selective
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 150 REFERENCES
On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task
TLDR
The results showed that those subjects, who reached two or more incorrect conclusions, were unable, or unwilling to test their hypotheses, and the implications are discussed in relation to scientific thinking.
Confirmation, Disconfirmation, and Informa-tion in Hypothesis Testing
Strategies for hypothesis testing in scientific investigation and everyday reasoning have interested both psychologists and philosophers. A number of these scholars stress the importance of
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory
People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one's
Reasons for confidence.
People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one's
How mental systems believe.
Is there a difference between believing and merely understanding an idea?Descartes thought so. He considered the acceptance and rejection of an idea to be alternative outcomes of an effortful
Considering the Opposite: A Corrective Strategy for Social Judgment
It is proposed that several biases in social judgment result from a failure--first noted by Francis Bacon--to consider possibilities at odds with beliefs and perceptions of the moment. Individuals
...
...