Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter?

@article{Franses2011ExpertsAT,
  title={Experts' adjustment to model-based SKU-level forecasts: does the forecast horizon matter?},
  author={Philip Hans Franses and Rianne Legerstee},
  journal={JORS},
  year={2011},
  volume={62},
  pages={537-543}
}
Experts (managers) may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve short-run and long-run forecasts of SKU-level sales data. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a time series variable. Analyzing a large database concerning pharmaceutical sales forecasts for various products and adjusted by a range of… CONTINUE READING

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