Expected hypothetical completion probability

@article{Deshpande2019ExpectedHC,
  title={Expected hypothetical completion probability},
  author={Sameer K. Deshpande and Katherine Evans},
  journal={Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports},
  year={2019},
  volume={16},
  pages={85 - 94}
}
  • Sameer K. Deshpande, Katherine Evans
  • Published 2019
  • Mathematics
  • Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
  • Abstract Using high-resolution player tracking data made available by the National Football League (NFL) for their 2019 Big Data Bowl competition, we introduce the Expected Hypothetical Completion Probability (EHCP), a objective framework for evaluating plays. At the heart of EHCP is the question “on a given passing play, did the quarterback throw the pass to the receiver who was most likely to catch it?” To answer this question, we first built a Bayesian non-parametric catch probability model… CONTINUE READING

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