Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks : How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U . S . Economy ?

@inproceedings{Kilian2006ExogenousOS,
  title={Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks : How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U . S . Economy ?},
  author={Lutz Kilian},
  year={2006}
}
Since the oil crises of the 1970s there has been strong interest in the question of how oil production shortfalls caused by wars and other exogenous political events in OPEC countries affect oil prices, U.S. real GDP growth and U.S. CPI inflation. This study focuses on the modern OPEC period since 1973. The results differ from the conventional wisdom along a number of dimensions. First, it is shown that under reasonable assumptions the timing, magnitude and even the sign of exogenous oil supply… CONTINUE READING
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