Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?

@article{Kilian2008ExogenousOS,
  title={Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?},
  author={Lutz Kilian},
  journal={The Review of Economics and Statistics},
  year={2008},
  volume={90},
  pages={216-240}
}
  • L. Kilian
  • Published 1 July 2005
  • Economics
  • The Review of Economics and Statistics
The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art estimates. It is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions. Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth… 
Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy
We investigate how the dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US economy have changed over time. We first document a remarkable structural change in the oil market itself, i.e. a considerably
Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy
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Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks
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This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects on the U.S. economy of news about oil supply by estimating a VAR. Information contained in daily quotations of oil futures contracts is exploited to
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DO OIL SHOCKS DRIVE BUSINESS CYCLES? SOME U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE
Oil prices rose sharply prior to the onset of the 2007–2009 recession. Hamilton [in the Palgrave Dictionary of Macroeconomics (2008)] noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States
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