Exchangeability and the law of maturity

  title={Exchangeability and the law of maturity},
  author={Fernando V. Bonassi and Rafael Bassi Stern and Cl{\'a}udia M. Peixoto and Sergio Wechsler},
  journal={Theory and Decision},
The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity. In particular, it has been shown that infinite exchangeability contradicts probabilistic descriptions of the law of maturity such as the gambler’s belief and the belief in maturity. We show that the weaker assumption of finite exchangeability is compatible… 

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