Evidence that coronavirus superspreading is fat-tailed

  title={Evidence that coronavirus superspreading is fat-tailed},
  author={Felix Wong and James J. Collins},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  pages={29416 - 29418}
  • Felix Wong, J. Collins
  • Published 2 November 2020
  • Physics
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Superspreaders, infected individuals who result in an outsized number of secondary cases, are believed to underlie a significant fraction of total SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, we combine empirical observations of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission and extreme value statistics to show that the distribution of secondary cases is consistent with being fat-tailed, implying that large superspreading events are extremal, yet probable, occurrences. We integrate these results with interaction-based… 

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