Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

  title={Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence},
  author={Edward M Hill and Michael J. Tildesley and Thomas House},
  booktitle={Scientific reports},
Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling… CONTINUE READING
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