Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis

@article{Rauchhaus2009EvaluatingTN,
  title={Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis},
  author={Robert W. Rauchhaus},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year={2009},
  volume={53},
  pages={258 - 277}
}
Do nuclear weapons reduce the probability of war? This article quantitatively evaluates the nuclear peace hypothesis. The results indicate that the impact of nuclear weapons is more complicated than is conventionally appreciated. Both proliferation optimists and pessimists find confirmation of some of their key claims. When a nuclear asymmetry exists between two states, there is a greater chance of militarized disputes and war. In contrast, when there is symmetry and both states possess nuclear… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

Questioning the Effect of Nuclear Weapons on Conflict

We examine the effect of nuclear weapons on interstate conflict. Using more appropriate methodologies than have previously been used, we find that dyads in which both states possess nuclear weapons

Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes

Contrasting claims about the consequences of nuclear weapons rely on different interpretations about how leaders respond to risk, uncertainty, and the balance of power. Nuclear optimists use

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict

This article evaluates whether the length of time states have nuclear weapons influences their behavior and the behavior of opponents in militarized disputes. Using multiple statistical models and

Targeting Nuclear Programs in War and Peace: A Quantitative Empirical Analysis, 1941-2000

When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively little scholarly research has considered when and

Winning with the Bomb

Nuclear weapons' effects on an actor's success in coercive diplomacy are in part a function of how nuclear weapons change the perceived costs of conflict. The authors argue that states can improve

The Nuclear Balance and International Conflict

There is reason to believe that the nuclear balance between states is an important determinant of international conflict, but recent international relations scholarship either ignores nuclear weapons

Talking Peace, Making Weapons

A growing literature suggests that nuclear assistance from other countries is an important determinant of whether states pursue nuclear weapons. Existing work does not consider, however, the most

The nationalist interpretation of nuclear deterrence: evidence from the Kargil War

Why did Pakistan initiate the Kargil War with India, so soon after the two states reached overt nuclear status? Existing theories attribute war between nuclear states either to the strategic

A Double-Edged Sword: Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Caution

Most empirical studies of the effects of nuclear weapons only consider whether a state at a given time has nuclear arms or not, but there are strong reasons to think that the effects of a state’s

The Coercive Limits of Nuclear Weapons

What are the coercive effects of nuclear weapons? Sixty-five years into the nuclear age, we still lack a complete answer to this question. This article employs a new dataset of nearly 200 militarized
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 117 REFERENCES

An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation

We assume that in a conflict between a nation with a nuclear capability and one without, the conflict may become nuclear, while, in a conflict between two nuclear powers, the conflict is unlikely to

Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Crisis Escalation

The effect of the possession of nuclear weapons on patterns of international conflict is the subject of an extensive but generally impressionistic body of work. Assumptions in this area determine

Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior

The literature on international conflict is divided on the impact of nuclear proliferation on state conflict. The optimists' argument contends that nuclear weapons raise the stakes so high that

Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes

Contrasting claims about the consequences of nuclear weapons rely on different interpretations about how leaders respond to risk, uncertainty, and the balance of power. Nuclear optimists use

The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict

This article evaluates whether the length of time states have nuclear weapons influences their behavior and the behavior of opponents in militarized disputes. Using multiple statistical models and

Winning with the Bomb

Nuclear weapons' effects on an actor's success in coercive diplomacy are in part a function of how nuclear weapons change the perceived costs of conflict. The authors argue that states can improve

Deterrence and the Cold War

The role of nuclear weapons in Soviet-American relations has been hotly debated. Politicians, generals, and most academic strategists believe that America's nuclear arsenal restrained the Soviet

Proliferation and the Probability of War

To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitative assertions about the change in the probability that an

The Perils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons

A n apparent contradiction lies at the center of our understandings about nuclear weapons and deterrence. On the one hand, it is widely believed that nuclear weapons were an important factor in

Nuclear Myths and Political Realities

Two pervasive beliefs have given nuclear weapons a bad name: that nuclear deterrence is highly problematic, and that a breakdown in deterrence would mean Armageddon. Both beliefs are misguided and
...