Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates

  title={Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates},
  author={Thomas S. Wallsten and David V. Budescu and Ido Erev and Adele Diederich},
This paper concerns the evaluation and combination of subjective probability estimates for categorical events. We argue that the appropriate criterion for evaluating individual and combined estimates depends on the type of uncertainty the decision maker seeks to represent, which in turn depends on his or her model of the event space. Decision makers require accurate estimates in the presence of aleatory uncertainty about exchangeable events, diagnostic estimates given epistemic uncertainty… CONTINUE READING