Evaluating Forecasting Methods

@inproceedings{Armstrong2016EvaluatingFM,
  title={Evaluating Forecasting Methods},
  author={Jeff S. Armstrong},
  year={2016}
}
Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast… CONTINUE READING
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