Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies using Bayesian m-top exploration
@article{Cimpean2023EvaluatingCV, title={Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine allocation policies using Bayesian m-top exploration}, author={Alexandra Cimpean and Timothy Verstraeten and Lander Willem and Niel Hens and Ann Now'e and Pieter J. K. Libin}, journal={ArXiv}, year={2023}, volume={abs/2301.12822} }
Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally…
Figures and Tables from this paper
58 References
Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies
- Computer ScienceECML/PKDD
- 2018
A new sampling technique is presented to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms and it is demonstrated that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations.
A framework for optimizing COVID-19 testing policy using a Multi Armed Bandit approach
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2020
A framework for testing is suggested that balances the maximal discovery of positive individuals with the need for population-based surveillance aimed at understanding disease spread and characteristics and allows experts and decision-makers to tailor the resulting policies as needed.
Identifying cost‐effective dynamic policies to control epidemics
- MedicineStatistics in medicine
- 2016
It is demonstrated that dynamic policies can produce higher net health benefit than more commonly described static policies that specify a pre‐determined sequence of interventions to employ throughout epidemics.
VacSIM: Learning effective strategies for COVID-19 vaccine distribution using reinforcement learning
- Computer ScienceIntelligence-Based Medicine
- 2022
Exploring the Pareto front of multi-objective COVID-19 mitigation policies using reinforcement learning
- Computer ScienceArXiv
- 2022
This work contributes a multi-objective Markov decision process that encapsulates the stochastic compartment model that was used to inform policy makers during the COVID-19 epidemic and evaluates the solution returned by PCN, which correctly learns to reduce the social burden whenever the hospitalization rates are sufficiently low.
Active Learning to Understand Infectious Disease Models and Improve Policy Making
- Computer SciencePLoS Comput. Biol.
- 2014
It is concluded that active learning is needed to fully understand complex systems behavior and surrogate models can be readily explored at no computational expense, and can be used as emulator to improve rapid policy making in various settings.
Dynamic Health Policies for Controlling the Spread of Emerging Infections: Influenza as an Example
- MedicinePloS one
- 2011
This work describes a modeling approach for developing dynamic health policies that allow for adaptive decision-making as new data become available during an epidemic and illustrates the design and implementation of a dynamic health policy for the control of a novel strain of influenza.
Identifying dynamic tuberculosis case-finding policies for HIV/TB coepidemics
- MedicineProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- 2013
Using mathematical models of TB/HIV coepidemics, dynamic policies strictly dominate static policies that prespecify a frequency and duration of rounds of ICF and it is found that the use of a diagnostic tool with better sensitivity for detecting smear-negative cases improves the incremental benefit of these dynamic case-finding policies.
Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics
- MedicinePLoS Comput. Biol.
- 2016
Policy makers could consider school closure policies more diffusely as response strategy to influenza epidemics and pandemics, and the fact that some countries already have some experience of gradual or regional closures for seasonal influenza outbreaks demonstrates that logistic and feasibility challenges of school closure strategies can be to some extent overcome.
The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study
- BusinessmedRxiv
- 2022
The SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics have been greatly modulated by human contact behaviour. To curb the spread of the virus, global efforts focused on implementing both Non-Pharmaceutical…