Estimation of the contact rate in a seasonal SEIR model: application to chickenpox incidence in France.

@article{Deguen2000EstimationOT,
  title={Estimation of the contact rate in a seasonal SEIR model: application to chickenpox incidence in France.},
  author={S{\'e}verine Deguen and Graham D. Thomas and N. P. Chau},
  journal={Statistics in medicine},
  year={2000},
  volume={19 9},
  pages={1207-16}
}
This work was an attempt at analysing the seasonal pattern of varicella epidemics in France by fitting a susceptibles-exposed-infectives-recovered (SEIR) model with a periodic contact rate function to weekly chickenpox incidence data collected over the period 1991 to 1996. The contact rate was assumed to be either a continuous, or a piecewise constant, periodic function. Both assumptions gave a reasonable fit to the data and yielded estimates of the incubation and infectious periods that were… CONTINUE READING