Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis

@article{Murray2007EstimationOP,
  title={Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis},
  author={Christopher J. L. Murray and Alan D. Lopez and Brian N. Chin and Dennis M. Feehan and Kenneth Hailey Hill},
  journal={The Lancet},
  year={2007},
  volume={368},
  pages={2211-2218}
}

Figures and Tables from this paper

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations.

TLDR
Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the United States and Europe, but there was no mortality sparing among Mexican seniors 65 years old, highlighting potential geographical differences in preexisting immunity to the 1918 virus.

Global Mortality Impact of the 1957–1959 Influenza Pandemic

TLDR
The global mortality rate of the 1957–1959 influenza pandemic was moderate relative to that of the 1918 pandemic but was approximately 10-fold greater than that ofThe 2009 pandemic.

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

TLDR
The 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, but a marked shift toward mortality among persons ,65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost.

Differential All-Cause Excess Mortality of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in the U.S. Registration Area

TLDR
The variation in excess mortality and the weak to moderate correlations with suspected determinants of mortality during the 1918 pandemic suggest further investigation of these determinants with regards to predicting excess mortality.

The 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Portugal: A Regional Analysis of Death Impact

TLDR
Given the geographic heterogeneity evidenced in this study, subnational sociodemographic characteristics and connectivity should be integrated in pandemic preparedness plans.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

TLDR
A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates.

Excess mortality patterns during 1918-1921 influenza pandemic in the state of Arizona, USA.

Title Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic fromthe GLaMOR Project : A Modeling Study

TLDR
The 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, but a marked shift toward mortality among persons ,65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost.
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 101 REFERENCES

A study of excess mortality during influenza epidemics in the Czech Republic, 1982–2000

TLDR
It is estimated that 2.17% of all cause mortality, and 2.57% of mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system throughout the study period was attributable to influenza, with an estimated annual average of 2661 and 1752 deaths respectively.

Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" Influenza Pandemic

TLDR
The estimated global mortality of the pandemic was of the order of 50 million, and it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention.

TLDR
The possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions are estimated and a net savings to society is projected if persons in all age groups are vaccinated.

Multinational impact of the 1968 Hong Kong influenza pandemic: evidence for a smoldering pandemic.

TLDR
A consistent pattern of mortality being delayed until the second pandemic season of A/H3N2 circulation in Europe and Asia is found, hypothesize that this phenomenon may be explained by higher preexisting neuraminidase immunity in European and Asia than in North America, combined with a subsequent drift in the neuraminIDase antigen during 1969/1970.

Epidemiological evidence of an early wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City.

TLDR
Using routinely collected monthly age-stratified mortality data, it is shown that an unmistakable shift in the age distribution of epidemic deaths occurred during the 1917/1918 influenza season in New York City.

The threat of pandemic influenza: are we ready?

  • S. LemonA. Mahmoud
  • Medicine
    Biosecurity and bioterrorism : biodefense strategy, practice, and science
  • 2005
TLDR
The report describes what steps the United States and other countries have taken thus far to prepare for the next outbreak of "killer flu" and looks at gaps in readiness, including hospitals' inability to absorb a surge of patients and many nations' incapacity to monitor and detect flu outbreaks.

Avian influenza and influenza pandemics.

TLDR
The ability of three of the 15 known subtypes of avian influenza viruses (H5N1, H7N7 and H9N2) occasionally to infect human beings makes them one of the most likely candidates to become the next pandemic virus.

Evidence of an absence: the genetic origins of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus

TLDR
Analyses of the genes of the 1918 pandemic virus indicate that this strain might have had a different origin, and whether a pandemic influenza virus can emerge by different mechanisms will affect the scope and focus of surveillance and prevention efforts.

Emerging infections: pandemic influenza.

TLDR
This challenge provides an opportunity to develop, test, and have in place a strategy for control of interpandemic influenza before the next pandemic.
...