Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

@article{Zhao2020EstimatingTS,
  title={Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020},
  author={Shi Zhao and Daozhou Gao and Zian Zhuang and Marc K. C. Chong and Yongli Cai and J. Ran and P. Cao and Kai Wang and Y. Lou and Weiming Wang and L. Yang and D. He and M. Wang},
  journal={medRxiv},
  year={2020}
}
Backgrounds: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong and estimated the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. Methods: Index cases were identified and reported after symptoms onset, and contact tracing was conducted to collect the data of the associated… Expand
Estimating the Serial Interval of the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Statistical Analysis Using the Public Data in Hong Kong From January 16 to February 15, 2020
Background: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) since the end of 2019. As of FebruaryExpand
Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) based on the public surveillance data in Shenzhen, China from January 19 to February 22, 2020
TLDR
The SI of COVID‐19 is relative shorter than that of SARS and MERS, other two beta coronavirus diseases, which suggests the iteration of the transmission was rapid, it is crucial to isolate close contacts promptly to control the spread of CO VID‐19 effectively. Expand
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  • Juanjuan Zhang, M. Litvinova, +21 authors Hongjie Yu
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A likelihood framework is developed to estimate the TG and the pre-symptomatic transmission period from the serial interval observations from the individual transmission events of COVID-19 and it is found that 32.2% (95%CI: 10.3-73.7) of the secondary infections may be due to pre- symptomatic transmission. Expand
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The estimation parameters in this study can be comparable with other studies and variability of these parameters can be considered when implementing disease control strategy in Myanmar. Expand
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Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020
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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, and estimates of dispersion term were 10 (95% CI: 5-56) or 22 (95- CI: 8-61) in Republic and Italy, and all of which imply few super-spreading events. Expand
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