Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

@article{Flaxman2020EstimatingTE,
  title={Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe},
  author={Seth Flaxman and Swapnil Mishra and Axel Gandy and H. Juliette T. Unwin and Thomas A. Mellan and Helen Coupland and Charles Whittaker and Harrison Zhu and Tresnia Berah and Jeffrey W. Eaton and M'elodie Monod and Pablo N. Nora Lucia Kylie E. C. Marc Adhiratha Olivia Lo Perez-Guzman Schmit Cilloni Ainslie Baguelin Boony and Pablo Noel Perez-Guzman and Nora Schmit and Lucia Cilloni and Kylie E. C. Ainslie and Marc Baguelin and Adhiratha Boonyasiri and Olivia Boyd and Lorenzo Cattarino and Laura V. Cooper and Zulma M. Cucunub{\'a} and Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg and Amy Dighe and Bimandra A. Djaafara and Ilaria Dorigatti and Sabine L van Elsland and Richard G. FitzJohn and Katy A. M. Gaythorpe and Lily Geidelberg and Nicholas C. Grassly and Will Green and Timothy B. Hallett and Arran Hamlet and Wes Hinsley and Benjamin Jeffrey and Edward S. Knock and Daniel J. Laydon and Gemma L. Nedjati-Gilani and Pierre Nouvellet and Kris V. Parag and Igor Siveroni and Hayley A. Thompson and Robert Verity and Erik M. Volz and Caroline E. Walters and Haowei Wang and Yuanrong Wang and Oliver John Watson and Peter Winskill and Xiaoyue Xi and Patrick G. T. Walker and Azra C. Ghani and Christl Ann Donnelly and Steven Riley and Michaela A. C. Vollmer and Neil M. Ferguson and Lucy C. Okell and Samir Bhatt},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2020},
  pages={1-8}
}
Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus 1 (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions such as closure of schools and national lockdowns. We study the impact of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of COVID-19 until the 4 th of May 2020 when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards… 
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Large-scale agent-based simulations in combination with Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) models are utilized to investigate the spread of COVID-19 for some of the most affected federal states in Germany and sample agents from a representative survey to estimate NPIs' effects on different age groups.
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