Estimating the Risk from Oe Hazards on Adak Island, Alaska

  • William L. Rohrer, Charles L. Vita, U J Greiner
  • Published 1998


The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of any department or Agency of the United States. ABSTRACT Fifty years of military occupation on Adak Island in the Aleutian Chain resulted in ordnance and explosives (OE) throughout NAF Adak property. Documented OE remains in the Navy-retained UXO Zone (Parcel 4). The remaining portions of the northern half of Adak Island are being transferred to the Department of Interior for ultimate disposition under the Base Closure and Realignment Act (BRAC) program. In order to facilitate this real estate transfer and enable commercial reuse, Department of Defense Explosives Safety Board (DDESB) required that the Navy estimate the risk of residual OE in the Downtown and Remote Areas of Adak. This paper describes the application of classical mathematical search techniques to estimate the probability of encountering OE in the " Remote Area " from future recreational activities. Activities such as fishing, hunting, hiking, and eco-tourism will likely occur in limited areas of the undeveloped portions of Adak Island, if reuse occurs on Adak. Given estimates of the locations of these activities and a range of OE surface density values from past ordnance incident reports and recent OE surveys of the Downtown area, the probability of future OE encounters is estimated. These probabilities include effects of inherent variability in OE occurrences and the uncertainty in the unavoidably imperfect information used to estimate OE occurrences. Using a range of estimates for the conditional probability of an injury given an OE occurrence, the risk of injury from future OE encounters is predicted to be similar to common household risks based on recent national safety statistics.

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Rohrer1998EstimatingTR, title={Estimating the Risk from Oe Hazards on Adak Island, Alaska}, author={William L. Rohrer and Charles L. Vita and U J Greiner}, year={1998} }