Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets

  title={Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets},
  author={Joeri Rogelj and Piers M. Forster and Elmar Kriegler and Christopher J. Smith and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian},
  pages={335 - 342}
Research reported during the past decade has shown that global warming is roughly proportional to the total amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This makes it possible to estimate the remaining carbon budget: the total amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while holding the global average temperature increase to the limit set by the Paris Agreement. However, a wide range of estimates for the remaining carbon budget has been… 
Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy
Recent estimates of the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals are larger than previously thought. One potential reason for these
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Remaining carbon budget specifies the cap on global cumulative CO2 emissions from the present-day onwards that would be in line with limiting global warming to a specific maximum level. In the
Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy
The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates
An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to
How Should a Global Carbon Budget be Estimated?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authority for estimating a carbon budget for keeping to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5—2°C target for limiting global warming, has indicated a
Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models
Global Carbon Budget 2020
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is
A history of the global carbon budget
  • Bård Lahn
  • Political Science
    WIREs Climate Change
  • 2020
The idea of a global “carbon budget”—the cumulative amount of “allowable” carbon emissions to meet a global temperature target—has become established as a central concept in climate science and
Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets
  • R. Houghton
  • Environmental Science
    Global change biology
  • 2020
The gross fluxes of carbon in the GCP budgets are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.


Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets
Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review
The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response
  • J. Lowe, D. Bernie
  • Environmental Science
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
  • 2018
Initial estimates are made to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is
Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
It is found that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario, and policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets.
Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings
The near proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and change in near surface temperature can be used to define a carbon budget: a finite quantity of carbon that can be burned associated with
Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets
Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature
The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets
Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature
The origin and limits of the near proportionality between climate warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.
AbstractThe transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) is a useful metric of climate warming that directly relates the cause of climate change (cumulative carbon emissions) to the
Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
A comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 °C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational constraints is provided.
1.5 °C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing
The increased LUC, high non-CO2 emissions and decreased aerosols in the authors' scenario, cause the long-term FF carbon budget to decrease following temperature stabilization, and the best estimate of the total (FF + LUC) carbon budget is therefore 699 PgC, which corresponds to about 11 years of current emissions.