Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

  title={Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack},
  author={Johan Walden and Edward H. Kaplan},
  booktitle={Emerging infectious diseases},
In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet. 

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