Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

  title={Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts},
  author={Vishal Gaur and Saravanan Kesavan and Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher},
  journal={Manufacturing & Service Operations Management},
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning. Of various methods of estimating the standard deviation of demand, one that has been employed successfully in the recent literature uses dispersion among experts’ forecasts. However, there has been limited empirical validation of this methodology. In this paper we provide a general methodology for estimating the standard deviation of a random variable using dispersion among experts’ forecasts. We test this methodology… CONTINUE READING
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