Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009


OBJECTIVE To estimate HIV incidence in the United States using a newly developed method. METHODS The analysis period (2002-2011) was broken down into 3-year periods with overlaps, and HIV incidence was estimated based on the relationship between number of new diagnoses and HIV incidence in each of these 3-year periods, by assuming that all HIV infections would eventually be diagnosed and within each 3-year period HIV incidence and case finding were stable. RESULTS The estimated HIV incidence in the United States decreased from 52,721 (range: 47,449-57,993) in 2003 to 39,651 (range: 35,686-43,617) in 2010, among males from 38,164 (range: 35,051-42,840) to 33,035 (range: 29,088-35,553), and among females from 13,557 (range: 12,133-14,830) to 6616 (range: 5825 to 7120). CONCLUSIONS Using a simple and novel method based on the number of new HIV diagnoses, we were able to estimate HIV incidence and report a declining trend in HIV incidence in the United States since 2003.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017502

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@inproceedings{Prejean2011EstimatedHI, title={Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009}, author={Joseph Prejean and Ruiguang Song and Angela L Hernandez and Rebecca A Ziebell and Timothy A. Green and Frances J. Walker and Lillian S. Lin and Qian An and Jonathan Mermin and Amy L. Lansky and H Irene Hall}, booktitle={Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes}, year={2011} }