Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza

@inproceedings{Truscott2012EssentialEM,
  title={Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza},
  author={James Truscott and Christophe Fraser and Simon Cauchemez and Aronrag Meeyai and Wes Hinsley and Christl A. Donnelly and Azra C. Ghani and Neil Ferguson},
  booktitle={Journal of the Royal Society, Interface},
  year={2012}
}
Seasonal influenza has considerable impact around the world, both economically and in mortality among risk groups, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the essential mechanisms and their parametrization. In this paper, we identify a number of characteristic features of influenza incidence time series in temperate regions, including ranges of annual attack rates and outbreak durations. By constraining the output of simple models to match these characteristic features, we investigate the… CONTINUE READING
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