Epidemic plateau in critical susceptible-infected-removed dynamics with nontrivial initial conditions.

@article{Radicchi2020EpidemicPI,
  title={Epidemic plateau in critical susceptible-infected-removed dynamics with nontrivial initial conditions.},
  author={Filippo Radicchi and Ginestra Bianconi},
  journal={Physical review. E},
  year={2020},
  volume={102 5-1},
  pages={
          052309
        }
}
Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such a dynamical pattern is compatible with critical susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) dynamics. In traditional analyses of the critical SIR model, the critical dynamical regime is started from a single infected node. The application of containment measures to an… 
Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic
Beyond COVID-19: network science and sustainable exit strategies
On May 28th and 29th, a two day workshop was held virtually, facilitated by the Beyond Center at ASU and Moogsoft Inc. The aim was to bring together leading scientists with an interest in network
Effect of initial infection size on network SIR model
We consider the effect of a nonvanishing fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds) on the SIR epidemic model on random networks. This is relevant when, for example, the number of arriving infected
Endemic infectious states below the epidemic threshold and beyond herd immunity (preprint)
Understanding the intricacies behind epidemic spreading models is of great relevance to reach the point in which trustable predictions on the propagation patterns can be attained. In the recent
Critical time-dependent branching process modelling epidemic spreading with containment measures
During the COVID pandemic, periods of exponential growth of the disease have been mitigated by containment measures that in different occasions have resulted in a power-law growth of the number of
Periodic Travelling Waves of COVID-19 Epidemics and Vaccination Campaign
While understanding of periodic travelling waves (PTW) of Covid-19 epidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking.
Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign
The effects of heterogeneity and stochastic variability of behaviours on the intrinsic dynamics of epidemics
TLDR
A new model is introduced, which takes into account heterogeneity and natural variability of behaviors in populations, and shows that features such as plateaus, rebounds, and shoulders are part of the intrinsic dynamics of an epidemic.
Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy
TLDR
To quantify the Covid-19 spreading rate with containment measures there is a need of a 3D expanded parameter space phase diagram built by the combination of Rt(t) and doubling time Td(t), which shows clearly metastable states appearing before and after the second wave critical regime.
Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space: the supercritical scaling laws and subcritical metastable phases
TLDR
A 3D phase diagram tracking the simultaneous evolution and the interplay of the doubling time, T d, and the reproductive number, R t measured using the methodological definition used by the Robert Koch Institute is built and it is found that in the supercritical regime with R t > 1 the doubled time is smaller than 40 days.
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 66 REFERENCES
Mathematical biology
TLDR
The aim of this study was to investigate the bifurcations and attractors of the nonlinear dynamics model of the saccadic system, in order to obtain a classification of the simulated oculomotor behaviours.
Lectures on Complex Networks
TLDR
This text is a concise modern introduction to the science of complex networks, and is based on lectures for university students and non-specialists, and will be useful for both teaching and self-study.
Chaos
or "What a lie", or "How could I have said so"? or demanded at once that she should be sent for. Yet, he never on one single occasion, before others, spoke to Mrs. Cox on the subject. The only
“A and B”:
Direct fabrication of large micropatterned single crystals. p1205 21 Feb 2003. (news): Academy plucks best biophysicists from a sea of mediocrity. p994 14 Feb 2003.
Physical Review E 54
  • 2483
  • 1996
and a at
The xishacorene natural products are structurally unique apolar diterpenoids that feature a bicyclo[3.3.1] framework. These secondary metabolites likely arise from the well-studied, structurally
Efficiency of COVID-19 mobile contact tracing containment by measuring time-dependent doubling time
TLDR
The efficiency of the containment policy lockdown case finding mobile tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than that of the lockdown stop and go policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London and is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution.
Epidemics with containment measures.
TLDR
It is found that not all kernels are able to push the epidemic dynamics below the epidemic threshold with some containment measures only able to reduce the rate of the exponential growth of newly infected individuals.
Self-isolation or borders closing: What prevents the spread of the epidemic better?
TLDR
It is found that SI networks have the scale-free property for the degree distribution P(k)∼k^{η}, with a small critical exponent -2<η<-1, and it is argued that thescale-free behavior emerges as a result of the randomness in the initial degree distributions.
Power-law distribution in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases
TLDR
The theory gives a mechanistic explanation why most COVID-19 cases occurred within a few epicenters, at least in the initial phase of the outbreak, and makes the case that the distribution of epidemic prevalence might follow universal rules.
...
...