Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

@article{Lunelli2009EpidemicPM,
  title={Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.},
  author={Antonella Lunelli and Andrea Pugliese and Caterina Rizzo},
  journal={Mathematical biosciences},
  year={2009},
  volume={220 1},
  pages={
          24-33
        }
}
Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and… CONTINUE READING

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