Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

@inproceedings{Leoncini2011EnsembleFO,
  title={Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications},
  author={Giovanni Leoncini and R. S. Plant and S. L. Gray and P. A. Clark},
  year={2011}
}
High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes… CONTINUE READING

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