Endogenous Viral Mutations, Evolutionary Selection, and Containment Policy Design

  title={Endogenous Viral Mutations, Evolutionary Selection, and Containment Policy Design},
  author={Patrick Mellacher},
  journal={Genetics eJournal},
How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple SEPAIRD model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latency period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge… Expand


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