Endogenous Viral Mutations, Evolutionary Selection, and Containment Policy Design

@article{Mellacher2021EndogenousVM,
  title={Endogenous Viral Mutations, Evolutionary Selection, and Containment Policy Design},
  author={Patrick Mellacher},
  journal={Genetics eJournal},
  year={2021}
}
How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple SEPAIRD model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latency period prove to be fitter. “Smart” containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge… Expand

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 40 REFERENCES
An epidemic model for an evolving pathogen with strain-dependent immunity.
TLDR
A parsimonious epidemic model is defined that attempts to capture the dynamics of evolving strains within a host population, including a novel quasi-stationary reproduction number that can be used to describe the re-emergence of the pathogen into a population with 'average' levels of strain immunity. Expand
An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses
TLDR
An Individual-Based Model (IBM) is developed in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example. Expand
Recurrent deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape
TLDR
By altering stretches of amino acids, deletions appear to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 antigenic evolution and may, more generally, drive adaptive evolution. Expand
Small-world effects in a modified epidemiological model with mutation and permanent immune mechanism
TLDR
The results show that the structure of the small-world network and the virus mutation cycle have an important impact on the spread of the epidemic, equivalent to making the immune cycle of human beings from infinite to finite. Expand
Adapting French COVID-19 vaccination campaign duration to variant dissemination
TLDR
Among the four compared strategies the 6-month vaccination campaign seems to be the best response to changes in the dynamics of the epidemic due to the variants, which would increase the need of strengthened measures such as Extended-NPI to limit the number of deaths and avoid ICU saturation. Expand
A SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate would likely match all currently circulating variants
TLDR
It is found that neutral evolution, rather than adaptive selection, can explain the rare mutations seen across SARS-CoV-2 genomes, and the results suggest that a single vaccine candidate should be efficacious against currently circulating lineages. Expand
Epidemics with mutating infectivity on small-world networks
TLDR
The analysis supports the claims that a potentiating mutation in the transmissibility might occur during an epidemic wave and not necessarily before its initiation, and uncover that the small-world property, i.e., the presence of long-range connections, makes the network very vulnerable, supporting frequent supercritical mutations and bringing the network from disease extinction to full blown epidemic. Expand
COVID-19 Intervention Scenarios for a Long-term Disease Management
TLDR
A new agent-based simulation model "COVID-19 ABM" is presented with which it is shown that low-level voluntary use of tracing apps shows no relevant effects on containing the virus, whereas medium or high-level tracing allows maintaining a considerably higher level of social activity. Expand
Tracking Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Spike: Evidence that D614G Increases Infectivity of the COVID-19 Virus
TLDR
A SARS-CoV-2 variant carrying the Spike protein amino acid change D614G has become the most prevalent form in the global pandemic, and it is found that the G614 variant grows to higher titer as pseudotyped virions. Expand
Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus
TLDR
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003 and offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains. Expand
...
1
2
3
4
...