Eliminating the hindsight bias.

@article{Arkes1988EliminatingTH,
  title={Eliminating the hindsight bias.},
  author={Hal R. Arkes and David Faust and Thomas J. Guilmette and Kathleen J. Hart},
  journal={Journal of Applied Psychology},
  year={1988},
  volume={73},
  pages={305-307}
}
Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate this hindsight bias among 194 neuropsychologists. Foresight subjects read a case history and were asked to estimate the probability of three different diagnoses. Subjects in each of the three hindsight groups were told that one of the three diagnoses was correct and were asked to state what probability they would have… 

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