# Election predictions as martingales: an arbitrage approach

@article{Taleb2017ElectionPA, title={Election predictions as martingales: an arbitrage approach}, author={Nassim Nicholas Taleb}, journal={Quantitative Finance}, year={2017}, volume={18}, pages={1 - 5} }

The more volatile the prediction the closer to an even call

## 22 Citations

An options-pricing approach to election prediction

- BusinessQuantitative Finance
- 2020

Election forecasting errors appear chiefly due to the mode of extracting outcomes from the polled share of the vote

Election predictions are arbitrage-free: response to Taleb

- EconomicsQuantitative Finance
- 2019

Taleb [Election predictions as martingales: An arbitrage approach. Quant. Finance, 2018, 18, 1–5] claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via…

All roads lead to quantitative finance

- EconomicsQuantitative Finance
- 2019

We are happy to respond to Clayton's letter, in spite of its confusions, as it will give us the opportunity to address more fundamental misunderstandings of the role of quantitative finance in gene...

Bounded Brownian Motion

- Mathematics
- 2017

Diffusions are widely used in finance due to their tractability. Driftless diffusions are needed to describe ratios of asset prices under a martingale measure. We provide a simple example of a…

Noncooperative dynamics in election interference.

- EconomicsPhysical review. E
- 2020

This work introduces and estimates a Bayesian structural time-series model of election polls and social media posts by Russian Twitter troll accounts, and constructs an analytical model of this competition with a variety of payoff structures.

Portfolio Optimization for Assets with Stochastic Yields and Stochastic Volatility

- Mathematics, EconomicsJ. Optim. Theory Appl.
- 2019

This paper establishes the existence result of the classical solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and derive and verify the optimal investment and consumption controls.

An ARFIMA multi-level model of dual-component expectations in repeated cross-sectional survey data

- BusinessEmpirical Economics
- 2019

Expectations for price in financial markets continue to be extensively investigated in multi-component models. An empirical assessment of the components of these models is challenged by the form of…

Dynamic Scoring: Probabilistic Model Selection Based on Utility Maximization

- Economics, Computer ScienceEntropy
- 2019

It is shown that any discrepancy between different probability estimates opens a possibility to compare them by trading on a hypothetical betting market that trades probabilities, where agents maximize some utility function which determines the optimal trading volume for given odds.

Probability Paths and the Structure of Predictions over Time

- Computer ScienceNeurIPS
- 2021

This work introduces a Bayesian framework—which it calls the Gaussian latent information model, or GLIM—for modeling the structure of dynamic predictions over time, and shows that GLIM outperforms two popular baseline methods, producing predictions that are both better calibrated and better capture the volatility of forecasts.

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