Election Fraud or Strategic Voting

  title={Election Fraud or Strategic Voting},
  author={Walter R. Mebane},
I simulate a mixture process that generates individual preferences that, when aggregated into precincts, have counts whose second significant digits approximately satisfy Benford’s Law. By deriving sincere, strategic and coerced votes from these preferences under a plurality voting rule, I find that tests based on the second digits of the precinct counts are sensitive to differences in how the counts are derived. The tests can distinguish coercion from strategic voting, and can even detect roll… CONTINUE READING


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