El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices : Warm Water or Hot Air?

@article{Brunner2000ElNA,
  title={El Nino and World Primary Commodity Prices : Warm Water or Hot Air?},
  author={Allan D. Brunner},
  journal={IMF Working Papers},
  year={2000},
  pages={1}
}
This paper examines the historical effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on world prices and economic activity. The analysis indicates that ENSO has economically-important and statistically-significant effects on world real commodity prices. A one-standard-deviation positive surprise in ENSO, for example, raises real commodity price inflation about 3-1/2 to 4 percentage points. Moreover, ENSO appears to account for almost 20 percent of commodity price inflation movements over… Expand
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