Corpus ID: 237532431

Efficient Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Epidemic Modelling using Polynomial Chaos

  title={Efficient Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Epidemic Modelling using Polynomial Chaos},
  author={Bjorn Jensen and Allan Peter Engsig-Karup and Kim Knudsen},
In the political decision process and control of COVID-19 (and other epidemic diseases), mathematical models play an important role. It is crucial to understand and quantify the uncertainty in models and their predictions in order to take the right decisions and trustfully communicate results and limitations. We propose to do uncertainty quantification in SIR-type models using the efficient framework of generalized Polynomial Chaos. Through two particular case studies based on Danish data for… Expand

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