Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach

@article{Miguel2004EconomicSA,
  title={Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach},
  author={Edward Miguel and Shanker Satyanath and Ernest John Sergenti},
  journal={Journal of Political Economy},
  year={2004},
  volume={112},
  pages={725 - 753}
}
Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may… Expand
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