Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change

  title={Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change},
  author={Shaun Bowler and Stephen P. Nicholson and Gary M. Segura},
  journal={American Journal of Political Science},
Although dramatic partisan change among the electorate is infrequent, the issue agendas of parties may produce large shifts. A major cause of such change is the politics of race. In a political environment charged with racially oriented issues, racial groups often align themselves with different parties (as witnessed most recently in the American South). Yet, if racial appeals violate norms of equality, these appeals may rebound on the party using them. Consequently, members of the (white… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

The New White Flight?: The Effects of Political Appeals to Latinos on White Democrats

One explanation for the post-1965 shift in the vote choice of White Americans posits that it was driven by a shift in the racial imagery of the two major parties. The growing role of Latinos in the

Creating a racially polarized electorate: the political fallout of immigration politics in Arizona and California

We explore the potential political impact of Arizona's controversial immigration statute, SB 1070, using a parallel event: the 1994 passage of Proposition 187 in California. Both statutes were

Reexamining the Effect of Racial Propositions on Latinos’ Partisanship in California

Many seasoned politicians and scholars have attributed the loss in support for the Republican Party in California to its push for three racially divisive propositions in the mid- 1990s, especially

Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment

This article demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California and Texas changed in response to the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush.

The Obama Legacy and the Future of Partisan Conflict

Past research has shown that the perceived successes or failures of presidents have a durable influence on the partisan leanings and political attitudes of people who come of political age during

Demographic Change, Latino Countermobilization, and the Politics of Immigration in US Senate Campaigns

Demographic changes from decades of mass immigration and shifts in internal migration patterns are upending the traditional racial composition of many states throughout the United States,

The Big Tent Effect

In this study, we assess whether Blacks and/or Latinos are more likely to identify with political parties that nominate a U.S. House candidate who shares their race/ethnicity using the 2010

Racialization in times of contention: how social movements influence Latino racial identity

This paper examines the effects of the 2006 immigrant rights protests on the strength of Latino racial identity. Utilizing the 2006 Latino National Survey and an original protest event data set, we

The Political Consequences of Ethnically Targeted Incarceration: Evidence from Japanese American Internment during World War II

What are the downstream political consequences of state activity explicitly targeting an ethnic minority group? This question is well studied in the comparative context, but less is known about the

Political Engagement, Mobilization, and Direct Democracy

Research has found that states using initiatives and referendums have higher turnout, particularly in midterm elections. Existing research has not examined who is mobilized to vote when issues appear



Issue Evolution Reconsidered: Racial Attitudes and Partisanship in the U.S. Electorate

Carmines and Stimson's theory of racial issue evolution has strongly influenced scholarly and popular interpretations of U.S. party politics. The central proposition of this theory is that racial

Racial Threat and Partisan Identification

Over the past three decades, as the Democratic party in the South has come to depend more heavily on black voters for its success, it has experienced a decline among white adherents. Power theory

Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization

For the most part, scholars who study American political parties in the electorate continue to characterize them as weak and in decline. Parties on the elite level, however, have experienced a

Partisan and Ideological Polarization in the California Electorate

The textbook image of the California electorate as unusually independent, moderate, antipartisan, and prone to ticket splitting is badly out of date. As in Washington, DC, increased partisan

Dealing with Diversity: Racial/Ethnic Context and Social Policy Change

We propose and provide an explanation of voting behavior that argues it is a convergence of a social context (high racial/ethnic diversity) and institutional context (frequent use of direct

The Revolution against Affirmative Action in California: Racism, Economics, and Proposition 209

In 1996, California voters approved Proposition 209, which banned the use of affirmative action in state hiring, contracting, and public university admissions. We know that white voters favored

Race/Ethnicity and Direct Democracy: An Analysis of California's Illegal Immigration Initiative

This article examines the role of racial/ethnic diversity in county-level support for California's illegal immigration initiative (Proposition 187). We conceptualize California counties in terms of

Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters

In this authoritative study, three political scientists demonstrate that identification with political parties powerfully determines how citizens look at politics and cast their ballots. "Partisan

Realignment: New Party Coalitions and the Nationalization of the South

Among academic and non-academic observers the Reagan election provoked speculation about whether the party system was finally embarking upon a realignment whose symptoms had been visible for some

Fear and Loathing in California: Contextual Threat and Political Sophistication Among Latino Voters

Environments having candidates or policies deemed threatening to an individual or group have previously been found to trigger feelings of anxiety that in turn motivate people to closely monitor