Doubling of world population unlikely

  title={Doubling of world population unlikely},
  author={Wolfgang Lutz and Warren C. Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov},
Most national and international agencies producing population projections avoid addressing explicitly the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium and high variants,, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time… 
World population stabilization unlikely this century
World population is likely to continue growing for the rest of the century, with at least a 3.5-fold increase in the population of Africa and the ratio of working-age people to older people is almost certain to decline substantially in all countries, not just currently developed ones.
An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria
  • W. Lutz, S. Scherbov
  • Sociology
    European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie
  • 1998
The applicability to national projections by directly taking the alternative assumptions defined by the Austrian Statistical Office is discussed, which seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections.
World Population Projections for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants
Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?
  • W. Lutz, S. Kc
  • Economics
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
  • 2010
The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global population projections, in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.
Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations.
The results suggest that a substantial proportion of the correlation between forecast errors for TFR in different countries is due to countries' geographic proximity to one another, and that if this correlation is accounted for, the quality of probabilistic projections of TFR for regions and other aggregates is improved.
Exploratory Extension of IIASA's World Population Projections: Scenarios to 2300
This paper describes an exploratory extension of IIASA's world population projections for two centuries beyond their regular time horizon. IIASAs World Population Program recently published its
Sensitivity analysis of expert-based probabilistic population projections in the case of Austria.
The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through \f2high\f1 and \f2low\f1 variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these
Uncertainty quantification of world population growth: A self-similar PDF model
  • S. Heinz
  • Environmental Science
    Monte Carlo Methods Appl.
  • 2014
A new reference world population model is formulated by a probabilistic extension of recent deterministic UN projections, and it is shown that the model has all desired properties of a reference model, and its predictions are very well supported by the known world population development from 1980 till 2010.
Long-Range Population Projections Made Simple
It is shown that analytic methods produce estimates of future population size very similar to those obtained through traditional methods, allowing sensitivity tests of assumptions and avoiding the misleading impression of precision associated with more complicated methods.
Expert-based probabilistic population projections
A medium projection is an indispensable component of any set of published projections intended for practical use and can be taken as an exogenous input into their own models for school planning, social security considerations, energy outlook, and the like.


Scenarios, Uncertainty and Conditional Forecasts of the World Population
  • J. Alho
  • Economics, Environmental Science
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A,
  • 1997
It is shown how subjective and data-based probabilistic assessments of error can be combined, to give a user a realistic assessment of the uncertainty of demographic forecasts, and to apply these concepts to forecasts of the world population.
The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today?
This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updated starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains
Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting
ON AVERAGE people live long lives, have a long lag between birth and childbearing, and experience demographic rates with highly regular age patterns. These patterns generally change quite slowly. For
Scenario Analysis in Population Projection
This paper focuses on the approach to population projections that has been labeled scenario analysis. It looks at the original meaning of "scenario" and then discusses its appropriate usage in
Future Demographic Trends in Europe and North America: What Can We Assume Today?
This is the latest report on what demographers and scientists in related disciplines think and assume today about the future of human reproduction, longevity, and migration. A quick look at some
[Long-range world population projections: two centuries of population growth 1950-2150 prepared by the United Nations in 1992]
Assuming replacement fertility the world population in 2150 will be 11.5 billion which is 4.6 times that of 1950. The greatest annual increase of 1.9% took place between 1950 and 1990 doubling the
Stochastic demographic forecasting.
  • R. Lee
  • Economics
    International journal of forecasting
  • 1992
How many people can the earth support
This article offers an overview of global human population economy environment and culture in order to explain why some people are interested in the question "How many people can the Earth support?"
Applied Mathematical Demography
This book explains the development of the Matrix Model Framework and some types of Instability and discusses the Demographic Theory of Kinship and Microdemography.
Managing The Global Commons