Does Three Strikes Deter?

@article{Helland2007DoesTS,
  title={Does Three Strikes Deter?},
  author={Eric Helland and A. Tabarrok},
  journal={The Journal of Human Resources},
  year={2007},
  volume={XLII},
  pages={309 - 330}
}
We take advantage of the fortuitous randomization of trial outcome to provide a novel strategy to identify the deterrent effect exclusive of incapacitation. We compare the post-sentencing criminal activity of criminals who were convicted of a strikeable offense with those who were tried for a strikeable offense but convicted of a nonstrikeable offense. As a robustness check, we also make this comparison in states without three-strikes laws. The identification strategy lets us estimate the… Expand

Figures and Tables from this paper

Does Three Strikes Really Deter? A Statistical Analysis Of Its Impact On Crime Rates In California
This study uses California crime statistics for the years 1984-2004, to determine what effect, if any, the increased sentencing standards under the three-strikes legislation in California have had inExpand
Measuring Criminal Spillovers: Evidence from Three Strikes
California’s Attorney General was pleased to announce that “An unintended but positive consequence of ‘Three-Strikes’ has been the impact on parolees leaving the state….The growth in the number ofExpand
Are criminals strategic? Offender responses to drug sentencing cutoffs
Abstract In many US states, punishment severity for drug offenses increases discontinuously at established quantity limits. Theory predicts that these laws create bunching of offenders at theseExpand
The Deterrence Effect of Prison: Dynamic Theory and Evidence
Using administrative, longitudinal data on felony arrests in Florida, we exploit the discontinuous increase in the punitiveness of criminal sanctions at 18 to estimate the deterrence effect ofExpand
California’s Three Strikes Law Revisited: Assessing the Long-Term Effects of the Law
Previous studies on the three strikes legislation in California draw conclusions based on data immediately following the passage of the law, which cannot account for the full deterrent effect of theExpand
Estimating the Deterrent Effect of Incarceration Using Sentencing Enhancements
Increasing criminal sanctions may reduce crime through two primary mechanisms: deterrence and incapacitation. Disentangling their effects is crucial for optimal policy setting. I use sentenceExpand
Diversion in the Criminal Justice System : Regression Discontinuity Evidence on Court Deferrals
The historically unprecedented size of the U.S. criminal justice system has necessitated the development of diversion programs to reduce caseloads as a cost containment strategy. Court deferrals,Expand
I'd rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb: The Unintended Consequences of California's Three Strikes Law
We are grateful to the following institutions for their financial and organizational support: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) andExpand
Deterrence: A Review of the Evidence by a Criminologist for Economists
This article reviews the evidence on the deterrent effect of police, imprisonment, and capital punishment and additionally summarizes knowledge of sanction risk perceptions. Studies of changes inExpand
Punishment and ( non-) Deterrence : Evidence on First-Time Drug O enders from Regression Discontinuities
Beginning in the 1970s with “The War on Drugs,” the United States embarked on a sustained period of harsh, punitive sanctioning for drug o enses. Yet as local jurisdictions confront dire budget andExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 36 REFERENCES
Fear of the First Strike: The Full Deterrent Effect of California’s Two‐ and Three‐Strikes Legislation
Many states have recently enacted three‐strikes laws to increase punishment for frequent offenders. However, only California actively enforces its three‐strikes legislation. Existing studies of theExpand
The Lethal Effects of Three‐Strikes Laws
Three‐strikes laws provide very long prison terms for certain criminals with prior convictions of serious violent crimes. It is likely that the laws increase homicides because a few criminals,Expand
“Three Strikes and You're Out”: The Impact of California's New Mandatory Sentencing Law on Serious Crime Rates
Using monthly data drawn from the 10 largest cities in California and an interrupted time-series design with nonequivalent dependent variables, the authors assessed the impact of California's “threeExpand
The Fugitive: Evidence on Public versus Private Law Enforcement from Bail Jumping*
On the day of their trial, a substantial number of felony defendants fail to appear. Public police have the primary responsibility for pursuing and rearresting defendants who were released on theirExpand
Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty-First Century
  • D. Nagin
  • Engineering
  • Crime and Justice
  • 1998
Evidence for a substantial deterrent effect is much firmer than it was two decades ago. However, large gaps in knowledge on the links between policy actions and behavior make it difficult to assessExpand
Punishment and Democracy: Three Strikes and You're Out in California
"Getting tough on crime" has been one of the favorite rallying cries of American politicians in the last two decades, and "getting tough" on repeat offenders has been particularly popular. "ThreeExpand
Using Sentence Enhancements to Distinguish between Deterrence and Incapacitation
TLDR
It is demonstrated that the introduction of sentence enhancements (i.e. increased punishments that are added on to prison sentences that would have been served anyway) provides a direct means of measuring deterrence. Expand
Juvenile Justice and the Punishment of Recidivists Under California's Three Strikes Law
The inclusion of juvenile adjudications as prior strikes under California's Three Strikes law sets up an inevitable clash between the remaining rehabilitative purposes of the juvenile justice systemExpand
The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence
Economists have generally supposed that certainty and severity of punishment deter crime and have been surprised whenever this is not confirmed by empirical word. This paper gives a number ofExpand
Victim Costs and Consequences : A New Look
s Sponsor special projects and research and development programs that will improve and strengthen the criminal justice system and reduce or prevent crime. s Conduct national demonstration projectsExpand
...
1
2
3
4
...