Corpus ID: 235390996

Does Bayesian Model Averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

@inproceedings{Connell2021DoesBM,
  title={Does Bayesian Model Averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests},
  author={Mark A Connell and Isabelle Billig and Daniel R. Phillips},
  year={2021}
}
We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two “toy problems” where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter… Expand

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