Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1

@article{Lichtenstein1977DoTW,
  title={Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1},
  author={Sarah Lichtenstein},
  journal={Organizational Behavior and Human Performance},
  year={1977}
}
  • S. Lichtenstein
  • Published 1 December 1977
  • Psychology
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

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How often are people wrong when they are certain that they know the answer to a question ? The studies reported here suggest that the answer is "too often." For a variety of general-knowledge

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From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937) a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition whose truth has not been ascertained and there is no “right” or “correct” probability that resides somewhere “in reality” against which it can be compared.

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