Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines

@article{Berman2011DoWM,
  title={Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines},
  author={Eli Berman and Michael Callen and Joseph H. Felter and Jacob N. Shapiro},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year={2011},
  volume={55},
  pages={496 - 528}
}
Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available… 

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