Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting

  title={Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting},
  author={Ram{\'o}n de El{\'i}a and Ren{\'e} Laprise},
  journal={Monthly Weather Review},
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ambiguous way of representing the uncertainty related to a future meteorological situation. There are several schools of thought regarding the interpretation of probabilities, none of them without flaws, internal contradictions, or paradoxes. Usually… 

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