Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting

@article{Ela2005DiversityII,
  title={Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting},
  author={Ram{\'o}n de El{\'i}a and Ren{\'e} Laprise},
  journal={Monthly Weather Review},
  year={2005},
  volume={133},
  pages={1129-1143}
}
Over the last years, probability weather forecasts have become increasingly popular due in part to the development of ensemble forecast systems. Despite its widespread use in atmospheric sciences, probability forecasting remains a subtle and ambiguous way of representing the uncertainty related to a future meteorological situation. There are several schools of thought regarding the interpretation of probabilities, none of them without flaws, internal contradictions, or paradoxes. Usually… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

THE UNBEARABLE LIGHTNESS OF PROBABILITIES
he use of probabilities in weather forecasting has become the most common way of conveying the chance of occurrence of a future event. Although accepted as a standard tool, the concept of probability
Public Understanding of Visual Representations of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts
TLDR
This work investigates the effects of the visual form and width of temperature forecast visualizations with uncertainty on estimates of the probability that the temperature could exceed a given value and finds that perceived uncertainty does not necessarily map linearly to visual features, as identical relative positions to the range are being judged differently depending on the width of the uncertainty range.
Meteorologists’ Interpretations of Storm-Scale Ensemble-Based Forecast Guidance
During the 2017 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed, 62 meteorologists completed a survey designed to test their understanding of forecast uncertainty. Survey
Probability of Precipitation: Assessment and Enhancement of End-User Understanding
Abstract The results of three psychological studies suggest that many people did not understand probability of precipitation (PoP) despite the fact that participants were college undergraduates in
Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication
TLDR
This article explores the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and proposes a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable.
The Effect of Uncertainty Visualizations on Decision Making in Weather Forecasting
People's reasoning with uncertainty information is often flawed. Visual representations can help, but little is known about what is the best way to present such information. Two studies investigated
Rutgers University students compete at making probabilistic forecasts for both temperature and precipitation and, in the process, accumulate a large database with which to practice analyzing forecast quality. DEvElOpMENT AND ANAlySIS OF A pROBABIlISTIC FORECASTING GAME FOR METEOROlOGy STUDENTS
TLDR
A long-running forecasting game at Rutgers University has recently been modified to become probabilistic in nature, allowing for the creation of a substantial database of forecasts.
Score decompositions in forecast verification
TLDR
The proper scoring rules for interval-probabilistic forecasts are defined and characterised, and a second decomposition of accuracy, the RDC decomposition, is determined, in which the terms refer to the qualities of refinement, discrimination and correctness of the forecasts.
Not as gloomy as we thought: reassessing how the public understands probability of precipitation forecasts
ABSTRACT Prior research on probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts showed that many people wrongfully believe that PoP forecasts are derived from a percentage of time, a percentage of a region
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 38 REFERENCES
The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications
Abstract Heretofore it has been widely accepted that the contributions of W. E. Cooke in 1906 represented the first works related to the explicit treatment of uncertainty in weather forecasts.
Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts
Abstract Previous studies have suggested that the general public misinterprets probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts, leading some meteorologists to argue that probabilities should not be
Spatial and Interannual Variability of the Reliability of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Forecasts: Consequences for Calibration
Reliability is an essential attribute of the quality of probabilistic forecasts. It indicates the correspondence between a given probability, and the observed frequency of an event in the case this
Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics, and Climate Prediction
TLDR
The optimal use of climate predictions requires providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties people have in estimating and dealing with probabilities, risk, and uncertainty and to make adjustments in the way forecasts are prepared and disseminated.
forecasters and probability forecasts: some current problems1,2
Abstract The responses to a questionnaire which was administered to forecasters actively involved in probability forecasting are summarized in Murphy and Winkler (1971). These responses and
Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts
TLDR
Five principles can improve reliability in judgmental forecasting: Organize and present information in a form that clearly emphasizes relevant information, limit the amount of information used, and require justification of forecasts.
Stochastic dynamic prediction
Stochastic dynamic prediction assumes the laws governing atmospheric behavior are entirely deterministic, but seeks solutions corresponding to probabilistic statements of the initial conditions, thus
Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts
Abstract Rank histograms are a tool for evaluating ensemble forecasts. They are useful for determining the reliability of ensemble forecasts and for diagnosing errors in its mean and spread. Rank
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal
TLDR
Franklin has no interest in denying the significance of the mathematical treatment of probability – he is, after all, a professional mathematician – but the principal theme in his book is the gradual “coming to consciousness” of canons of inference governing uncertain cases.
Ensemble Reforecasting: Improving Medium-Range Forecast Skill Using Retrospective Forecasts
Abstract The value of the model output statistics (MOS) approach to improving 6–10-day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of surface temperature and precipitation is demonstrated. Retrospective
...
...